The baht opened at 36.59, adding to the dollar's weakness. After the Fed Chairman reiterated his position that he is in no rush to reduce policy. We look at US inflation tonight: InfoQuest

The baht opened this morning at 36.59 baht/dollar, slightly higher than today's close of 36.66 baht/dollar, revealed Mr. Poon Panichphepon, Money Market Strategist, Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, Krung Thai Bank.

Last night, the baht gradually strengthened and was moderately volatile in the short term. After the market received the PPI report, in the US core PPI, the monthly momentum (%M/M) was higher than expected.

The dollar turned weak against major currencies. After the market eased concerns about the Fed rate outlook and perhaps predicted that the US Federal Reserve still has the opportunity to cut interest rates about twice this year through mixed Producer Price Index reports. And the Federal Reserve Chairman’s statement in which he affirmed his position not to rush to lower interest rates as before. So we can be confident about inflation expectations in the United States

In addition, the atmosphere is open to market risks. It reduces the attractiveness of holding extra dollars. “The baht value trend may remain sideways in the run-up to the market gradually learning about the US CPI (inflation) tonight because this is information. It is important that the market is waiting for a beat. As a result, the market may currently still be in a wait-and-see mode.

The money manager expects the baht range today to be at 36.40-36.75 baht/$.

Important factors

– The yen price is at 156.34 yen/dollar compared to yesterday evening at 156.30 yen/dollar.

The price of the euro is at 1.0818 dollars/euro since yesterday evening at 1.0790 dollars/euro.

– Baht/Dollar exchange rate is a weighted average between BoT banks. It is at the level of 36.771 baht / dollar.

The Kasikorn Research Center revealed a decline in the value of the baht compared to the closing level at the end of 2023, as the baht fell by 7.2%, which is the second largest decline in the value of the currency in Asia, after the yen, which fell by 9.5%, due to the rise in the value of the dollar from adjusting market expectations that The US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cut will not happen quickly. This leads to an outflow of money from the stock market. And Thai bonds worth 130 billion baht

The Bank of Thailand issued a report on “real estate sector loans” and found that in the first quarter, housing loans in the Thai banking system fell sharply, both in “new lending amounts” and “used housing.” The results of the loan survey were that banks have tightened their lending practices, are concerned about the quality of debt and debtors. The economy is slowing down – interest rates are high. KKP reveals that competition in interest rates for lending to the upper segment of the market is “fierce”, with an emphasis on controlling lending. Model quality, not quantity Focus 'CIMB Thai' reveals banks reject home loans of up to 3 million, up 70%

The US Department of Labor revealed that the general producer price index, which includes food and energy categories, rose by 2.2% in April on an annual basis. This is in line with analyst expectations of 1.8% in March.

– The Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve) gave a speech at the annual meeting. The Foreign Bankers Association in Amsterdam, Netherlands, said they expect the Fed will not raise interest rates again. Although inflation numbers were higher than expected, it was reported that US inflation is still adjusting slower than expected. This will cause the Fed to hold interest rates longer.

Ready to forecast US GDP this year. It is likely to expand by 2% or more as the US economy adjusts strongly. Especially the labor market. At the same time, the domestic sector enjoys a stable financial situation. Consumer expenditures and business investment continue to remain strong

– The US Secretary of the Treasury revealed that the new tariffs on Chinese goods will protect American companies and American workers and increase product prices for American consumers

– The US dollar weakened against major currencies in New York foreign exchange trading on Tuesday (May 14) after the Federal Reserve Chairman suggested the Fed would not raise interest rates again.

– Gold futures in the New York market closed on a positive note on Tuesday (May 14), supported by the decline in the value of the dollar. Moreover, gold prices also rebounded after the Fed Chairman indicated that the Fed will not raise interest rates again.

Investors are awaiting the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April in the United States today. Other economic data this week includes the April small business confidence index from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), April retail sales, the May housing market index from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), the number of weekly unemployment claims, April home starts and permits. Construction, industrial production in April. The leading economic indicator for April from the Conference Board

By InfoQuest News Agency (May 15, 2024)

Tags: baht value, exchange rate, baht

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