Thais began voting on Sunday in the first parliamentary election since pro-democracy protests in 2020, amid rejection of the pro-military conservative government, which lost elections to the progressive opposition.
Against a backdrop of sluggish growth and a decline in basic liberties, analysts expect a higher participation rate to reflect the change desired by a segment of the population.
Pyu Thai, the main opposition party led by the daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, hopes to reverse the nearly decade-long dominance of the military and its allies, created by current Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha. 69 years).
A complex system, an uncertain outcome
But the complicated electoral system gives a candidate close to the military a comfortable lead, which could reduce the expected level of change or open a new period of uncertainty. In a kingdom accustomed to military and judicial interventions in the democratic process, a scenario that allows the military to remain in power is also possible.
After voting opened at 8am (3am in Western Europe), the main candidates went to the polls early in the morning in the capital, Bangkok.
“Today (Sunday) will be a good day. I feel a lot of positive energy,” said 36-year-old Padongdern Shinawatra, who was voted on the ballot under the Pyu Thai red banner. The star candidate went to vote with his family, his sister and his mother. His father, Thaksin, who was prime minister from 2001 to 2006, was exiled to escape conviction for corruption.
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Red against yellow
A billionaire adored by rural communities in the north and northeast who benefited from his pioneering social policies, Thaksin’s charisma polarized Thai political life for more than 20 years between his supporters (“the Reds”) and those aligned with his military. Conservative opponents (“yellow”).
In 2006 and 2014 respectively, Yingluck Shinawatra was ousted from power by a military coup. Padongdorn hopes to use his clan’s popularity to ride an “election wave”.
Seat requirements in figures
Pheu Thai needs 376 of the 500 seats in the National Assembly to balance the influence of the 250 senators appointed by the military. A pro-military camp with 126 representatives is enough to ensure a majority in the polls of a prime minister elected by both houses.
The mechanism, considered discriminatory by human rights organizations, allowed Prayuth Chan-o-cha to remain in power in 2019, legitimizing his 2014 regime.
Today contested by his former coalition, ex-general Prayuth wants to bulwark against reformist ideas and touts his experience as a guarantee of stability. Calling on voters to vote in large numbers on Sunday, he said he hoped there would be “as high a turnout as possible”.
A generational shock
Sunday’s vote will be the first nationwide in 2020 after massive pro-democracy protests that called for a total overhaul of the monarchy, a taboo subject in Thailand.
The protests, which have waned under the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the authorities’ crackdown, have fueled the momentum of the opposition’s other major force, the Movement Forward (“Go Forward”). The party, which bills itself as the mouthpiece of a new generation, defends the reform of the controversial article that suppresses les-majes, which according to its opponents has been hijacked to stifle any alternative voice.
Its president, the telegenic Pita Limjaroenrat (42), a Harvard graduate, expects a “historic” turnout, as he begins voting. “The younger generation now respects their rights and they will go to vote,” the candidate assured.
But its stances were seen as serious fuel to rumors of the party’s dissolution after the election, after its advance in 2019 to its progenitor Future Forward (“Forward to the Future”).
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