The value of the baht today, May 23, 2024, opened this morning at 36.50 baht per dollar, doubling.

The value of the baht today, May 23, 2024, opened this morning at 36.50 baht per dollar, down from the previous day's closing level of 36.33 baht per dollar. Looking at the baht today it is expected to be at 36.35-36.65 baht per dollar.

Mr. Pun Panichpheaboon, Analyst at Krungthai Bank Trading Room The baht opened this morning at 36.50 baht per dollar, down from the previous day's closing level of 36.33 baht per dollar. Since last Tuesday night, the value of the baht has been fluctuating and continuing to decline. (fluctuating in the range of 36.26-36.51 baht per dollar) in line with the rise in the dollar price. Among the opinions of market players are once again concerned about the outlook for the Federal Funds rate. (Recently, the market gave the Fed the opportunity to cut interest rates twice this year, by about 51%, down from last week when they were high by nearly 70%) after Fed officials reiterated their stance. In no rush to cut interest rates Moreover, the rise in the value of the dollar was also supported by the continuing decline in the value of the euro after the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) indicated that the ECB has a chance to cut interest rates. The interest rate could be published at the June meeting. If the inflation trend is as expected Meanwhile, the dollar continues to receive support from the continuing decline in the value of the Japanese yen, which recently fell near the level of 156.70 yen per dollar. In addition to strengthening the dollar. The baht continues to face pressure from the influx of gold purchase transactions during the downturn. After that, the price of gold continued to decline by about -$50 per ounce. Combined with the past crude oil price deflation including the depreciation of the Japanese Yen against the Baht (JPYTHB), this may cause some market players to gradually purchase these assets during the decline in prices. Transaction flow in purchasing crude oil and yen also contributes to downward pressure on baht volatility.

US stock market players are still in a cautious state and after Fed officials reiterated their position that they are in no hurry to cut interest rates, in addition, market participants are waiting to see. A report on the performance of a large technology company such as Nvidia (which performed better than expected. This caused Nvidia's stock price to rise by +6% during the after-hours period), which made the overall S&P500 close the market by -0.27%.

As for the trend of the baht value, we see a continuation of the depreciation of the baht in the past. This led to the baht losing the opportunity to return to its clear rise in the short term. (Consistent with our previously assessed view) The baht will start to fluctuate sideways around the 50-day moving average (36.50 baht per dollar area) again, with the baht continuing to face depreciation factors. The entire transaction flow buys gold in short batches. Transaction flow pays off for foreign investors. (There may not be much left) Transaction flow for buying Japanese Yen and Crude Oil In addition, the flow of foreign investors' funds remains volatile. We are starting to see a gradual selling of Thai stocks by foreign investors, however, we believe that the pressure to sell Thai stocks may slow somewhat. After that the atmosphere in the financial market started to brighten. From Nvidia's better than expected earnings report, overall we see that the baht has a chance to fluctuate and weaken and test the resistance area around 36.65 baht per dollar.

However, one should be wary of the fluctuations witnessed in the financial markets during the period when the US PMI report is gradually received. By studying previous data, we found that in cases where the US PMI report was better than expected, this may lead to a decline in the value of the baht. This comes after the dollar rose by +0.15%, and it is possible that the baht will rise again. If the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report is worse than expected. This puts pressure on the dollar to weaken by -0.16%, giving the baht an opportunity to fluctuate in the range of 36.40-36.65 baht per dollar. If the baht fluctuated around 36.50 baht per dollar in the previous period to know this information.

We maintain the same view that the dim continues to move with high volatility. Amid changes in factors affecting the trend of the baht value. As a result, market players must use a variety of strategies to close out risks. Either using instruments such as options or the local currency. This will increase efficiency in closing exchange rate risks. Looking at the baht today it is expected to be at 36.35-36.65 baht per dollar.