HoonSmart.com>>Sataporn “Ngam Rueangphong” or “Sian Hong” sees the market rebound by 30 points, so there is no need to rush to buy. The decline is expected to continue for another year or two, and there are negative factors waiting for it. Watch Real Estate in September , and only sell for it 9% of newly opened units, and if it stays low for another 3-4 months, there will be no energy to pay off the high interest bonds. Open a personal portfolio worth 5-6 billion baht. The average loss this year is 45- 50%. Embrace cash 50%, waiting for the market to deteriorate. Spoon moment. I recommend choosing cash flow – strong balance sheet. Warning of conditions not conducive to the use of derivatives – margin, causing portfolio collapse. Thai stocks jump sharply in line with countries Foreigners buy 3 billion baht, and Pakorn confirms that he did not find anything wrong with short selling and short selling.
Mr. Sathaporn Ngamruangvong or “Sian Hong”, one of Thailand’s stock experts, revealed that the stock market which jumped by nearly 30 points today was just a short-term increase due to the income and return gap. It is still very low for almost 20 years, reflecting the possibility that the market will continue to improve for another year or two, considering that the rate of return from investing in US government bonds (bond yield) is high at approximately 5% without any risks. While the economy is still not good this makes stocks that have fallen that much not cheap, so there is no need to rush out to buy stocks. I admit that Thai stocks are becoming less attractive. News moves fast. Shorter business cycles are disrupted, making it impossible to hold stocks for a long time
As for the option of keeping cash, wait until the market falls sharply. Gradually decide to go in and buy. Although many large-cap stocks are now cheap, such as commercial banks and petrochemicals, their price-to-book value (P/BV) ratio is lower than it was during the Covid period. But don’t rush. There is a chance to get something cheaper than this. At the same time, look for opportunities to buy stocks whose business model and management you like. As for the 10 to 11 stocks in the portfolio, it looks like there is still opportunity for growth over the next two or three years. Keep investing.
Sian Hong advises you on how to choose stocks with high interest, as you should look at each stock individually, giving great weight to companies with high cash flow. It has a good balance sheet because there will be enough money to pay off debt and expand the business, and if the market returns it will rebound quickly. High growth stocks are given less weight. In this situation finance group stocks which were generating very high profits for the portfolio then buy stocks with low NPLs and there is no obligation to put high reserves.
“When I started entering the stock market with 100,000 baht, at home I saw that I was serious about investing, so I gave 600,000 baht. The portfolio had previously risen to 10 billion baht. The stock market situation at that time was creating stability. Due to low interest rates, Even with a relatively high P/E ratio, you can find stocks with high growth. The price is still rising. Used to get 1-3 times earnings. One stock invested 1,000 million baht and got a profit of 3,000 million baht. Another stock invested 2,000 million Baht, and held it for only 7 months, and made a profit of 2000 million baht. Baht, and choose to invest heavily in 3 stocks, but now the market is not very difficult to play because the interest is high. The economy is growing low, if you have 100% cash, Do not invest more than 50%, especially this year, causing the current portfolio of 5,000 to 6,000 million baht to lose on average by 45-50%, the largest in 10 years. Years, and you have 50% in cash, waiting The role of the capital market. Very bad, even if you do not buy, do not rush. As for foreign investment, I invested in China but lost a lot, then returned to the Thai stock market. Do not invest abroad because the market is very sensitive and disappointed because profits grew less than expected. The price fell sharply. Xian Hong said.
At the same time, M&A deals will be rare. Because the financial costs are high, it is not worth it. There were more bond defaults. Because interest costs are high, about 5-6% annually, compared to 2-3% annually in the past.
Also, be careful of real estate. Kasikorn Securities released an analysis that found that sales in September 2023 were just 668 units, representing 9.3% of the total 7,168 new units opened, which is considered very low, and we will have to monitor the numbers over the next three to four months to see if they recover. or not. It is feared that this will affect liquidity. Because real estate business is a source of income for money. If the home is sold for a small amount it may also affect the repayment of high interest bonds. Total home sales in the first nine months of this year reached 12,014 units, representing 17.8% of the total 67,451 new openings.
Qian Hong said that also many new investors come to seek advice. By sending the port for me to see. Found the same problem: profits earned from investment over many years but now the port is back where it started. Because derivative instruments are used, such as playing block trades and using margin loans. Causing huge losses This type of stock situation is not recommended.
As for the stock market, the index closed on November 15, 2023 at the level of 1,415.17 points, an increase of 29.13 points, or 2.10%, with a trading value of 63,738.22 million baht, caused by foreign investors’ net buying of 3,558.85 million baht, in contrast, the net selling of Thai investors was 3,956.70. One million baht.
Ms. Chotikarn Santimithviron Senior Director of Securities Analysis Department, Philip Securities (Thailand) said that the stock market rose very strongly today. It is in the same direction as the international market. The entire Asian region and European markets traded higher this afternoon, receiving positive sentiment after US inflation numbers came in below market expectations. Eases concerns about US interest rates May end the rally and cut interest rates faster As a result, the 10-year bond yield fell sharply to 4.43% from 4.7% previously. The US dollar also weakened. Support global stock markets to rise and as a result, stocks with good growth will be bright and positive.
In addition, Chinese economic numbers, both retail sales and industrial sector numbers, came out better than expected. This makes it to help support the market including the recent UK inflation which was slower than the market expected. However, watch the conversations between American leaders. And Chinese leaders today
The market benefited from strong buying of stocks in the finance, power plants and electronic components sectors. Strong buying of large-cap stocks in response to government measures, digital wallet, E-Refund and Thai ESG funds helped push the index above 1,400 points.
Investment Trends for Tomorrow (November 16) The market continues to enjoy positive momentum with support levels ranging between 1,405-1,400 points and resistance levels ranging between 1,425-1,430 points.
Mr. Phakorn Pitatawachai, Director and Director The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) issued a press conference in the afternoon, confirming that the exchange did not find any anomalies in short selling and short selling after examining the data during the month of July 2023. It is preparing to disclose additional information in the future at this time. , we collect information about what will be disclosed further.
This trade follows news that occurred on July 12, 2023 (around 10:30 AM), and took about 2 minutes to send, with a total of 6 orders worth about 30 million shares, which the watch monitors in time for the “real” behavior on that day. The following facts were found: 1. A significant number of sales orders were not sent from a foreign program. 2. But they were sell orders from local shareholders who owned more shares than the number of orders specified. Sell, so it is not a short sell order 3. This large number of trade orders does not match at all and does not affect the stock price at the time the order is placed 4. Within 20 minutes after that all sell orders were withdrawn. Then do not put it back on for the rest of the day.
Mr. Fakorn said he would like to distribute the ratio of investors to 1 in 3, including local investors, institutions, securities companies and foreigners, where foreign trading software is fast. Increasing trading volumes significantly increases the proportion of retail and institutional trading volumes in the country. It still takes time. The retail base must be increased to between 5 and 600 thousand people annually in order to be on par with foreign trade, which is difficult to do. In the past, increasing the retail base by just 100,000 people per year was considered a big deal.
“Global market developments regarding trading software are always accelerating. So you see more ratios. Which leads to it increasing at an uneven acceleration rate. How can we promote it so that there is a greater percentage of investors in the country?” Mr Fakorn said.
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