Krungsri expects the baht's value to fluctuate this week in the range of 36.40-37.00 baht/dollar.

Krungsri expects the baht to fluctuate in the range of 36.40-37.00 baht/$ this week after the market reviews the direction of the federal funds rate.

Global Markets Group Bank of Ayodhya (Gulf) Evaluation of the baht movement this week. It tends to be around 36.40-37.00 baht/$ compared to last week. The baht closed higher at 36.61 baht/$ after trading in a range of 36.25-36.79 baht/$, while the dollar rose against all major currencies last week. The yen hit a new 34-year low and the euro fell to its lowest level in five months, while US bond yields rose. Post-US inflation was higher than expected for the third month in a row.

The general consumer price index for March rose by 3.5% compared to the same period last year. This was the highest rate in six months and the core CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year. This is also higher than investors expected in the first quarter of 2024, as the core CPI rose 4.2%, accelerating from 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023. The European Central Bank kept interest rates at 4.00%, but indicated the possibility of lower rates. Benefit. In June, foreign investors bought Thai stocks for 7.918 million baht, but sold bonds for a net value of 16.566 million baht.

To get an overview of this week, after US inflation and consumer spending numbers came in stronger than expected, and as a result, the market revised its expectations for the timing of the first interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve from June to September. In this situation, the dollar is expected to continue to receive support in the short term, and geopolitical tensions and the risks of rising energy prices are also expected to reduce global economic growth. Another way to stimulate demand for the dollar

Baht value this week

While the situation within the country, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sees that the Thai economy in 2024 is likely to expand higher than the previous year. From private consumption and tourism, including the momentum generated by government spending during the rest of the year. Meanwhile, exports have gradually recovered and the Monetary Policy Committee assesses headline inflation will return to the target range at the end of this year. While two members of the committee agreed on the need to reduce the interest rate to 2.25% in line with the possibility of the economy expanding less. It will help ease the burden on debtors to some extent and most managers agreed that the effectiveness of monetary policy in solving structural problems is limited.

Therefore, we see that the recent position of the MPC as a whole is in no hurry to cut interest rates, however, there is a chance to cut interest rates this year. If the economic trend changes from that and the Monetary Policy Committee has assessed it.

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