Statistically, a November hurricane should form in the Atlantic Ocean every two or three years. It’s rare to have two at the same time. A pair of hurricanes swept the Atlantic simultaneously only twice before, According to Phil Klotsbacha tropical weather researcher at Colorado State University.
As Lisa approached Belize on Wednesday morning, a hurricane warning was in effect for the entire coast. The National Hurricane Center warned of hurricane-force winds and a “life-threatening storm” near the heart of Lisa, and it was expected to make landfall Wednesday afternoon through evening.
The southeastern coast of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula is also under a hurricane warning, from Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya. A tropical storm warning covered parts of the northern coasts of Guatemala and Honduras.
The Hurricane Center wrote: “Preparations to protect life and property must be completed quickly.”
Another storm, Martin, became the seventh Atlantic hurricane in 2022 on Wednesday morning. It is located in the North Atlantic Ocean, hundreds of miles northeast of Bermuda, and is expected to cruise northeast over open water over the next several days.
About halfway between Lisa and Martin, there is potential for the gradual development of a third system near the Bahamas over the next several days.
This late-season activity in the Atlantic follows a somewhat calmer-than-average season, despite devastating storms like Fiona and Ian, which wreaked havoc in Puerto Rico, Atlantic Canada, and southwest Florida. Overall activity is about 25 percent below average at this point.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30th. November is usually a slow month, with activity waning and eventually a flat streak. On average, only about 7 percent of the season’s storm will occur after Halloween.
On Wednesday morning, Lisa was about 60 miles east of Roatan, an island in Honduras, and about 100 miles east of Belize City. Packed maximum winds of 80 mph as it moves west at 15 mph. Lisa’s nearly 30-mile-wide eye wall, a ring of fierce winds surrounding its calm center, was visible on the westbound radar. It seems About to make landfall Sometime between 2 and 4 p.m. ET.
Winds gradually became more stormy on the coast and were expected to intensify significantly around or shortly after noon. Storms on the coast near the center of Lisa may approach 70 to 80 miles per hour. Belize City appears to be within sight of the eyewall path.
A dangerous storm is likely in areas north of where Lisa’s center comes on shore. In this area, Lisa’s inshore winds will push up to 4 to 7 feet of ocean water into the coast. The area north of Belize City may see the maximum increase, including the holiday communities of Ambergris Caye.
Areas south of Belize City will see more offshore winds, which will limit altitude.
Across the direct path of the entire system, heavy rain is expected in the range of 4 to 6 inches, with a total potential of 10 inches.
The hurricane center wrote: “This rainfall could result in flash floods, primarily through Belize into northern Guatemala, the far southeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, the eastern part of the Mexican state of Chiapas, and the Mexican state of Tabasco.”
Martin developed somewhat unexpectedly on Tuesday from a mature mid-latitude hurricane. The mass system did not occur through conventional tropical processes, but an eruption of showers and thunderstorms occurred near the center of the system. In other words, an integrated tropical storm formed at the heart of a non-tropical system.
It has since strengthened into a hurricane with maximum sustainable winds of 75 mph. The storm, about 800 miles northeast of Bermuda, was pushing northeast at just over 15 miles per hour.
Martin is expected to intensify into a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 105 mph by Thursday, but is then expected to quickly transition into a post-tropical cyclone, losing its tropical characteristics. It would likely swing north, remaining in southern Greenland, until the end of the working week before turning abruptly east and gradually weakening on approach to Britain.
Weather models are beginning to hint that a large, extensive, low-pressure system could develop near or east of the Bahamas in the coming days. The hurricane center estimates there is a 20 percent chance of it becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next five days.
There is a possibility that the system will drift toward Florida or the Gulf of Mexico in about a week, but it is almost impossible to predict how regulated and severe it will be. If the system gets a name, it will be called Nicole.
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