As the end of the year approaches, December 31, 2023, the new year 2024 enters with the situation of the Thai family much changed from the past. From one Thai family, there are approximately 5-6 parents and children, or 10 people are seen at all. But nowadays, women of childbearing age have only one child on average. This problem has become a national problem. This prompted the Ministry of Public Health to prepare to push and promote “Having Children for the Nation” has become a national agenda. In an age of society, it is expected that within the next 60 years, or 2626, Thailand's population will decline to just 33 million from the current 66.5 million.
This situation is not limited to any particular country. From the recognition of “Assistant Professor Dr. Manasekarn Kanchanachitra” Deputy Director Academic Affairs Institute of Population and Social Research, Mahidol University But there is a trend happening all over the world. Thailand is in a worrying situation. Because it has the second lowest birth rate in the world, after Japan, which has become an aging society. If it was classified only in developing countries, Thailand would become the country with the lowest birth rate in the world.
The Thai population has declined. There are progressively fewer newborns.
To give a clear picture of the low birth rate in Thailand, Professor Dr. Pattama Wapatanaung, Institute of Population and Social Research, Mahidol University, said, referring to the information of Professor Emeritus Dr. Pramut Prasatkul, Advisor to the Institute of Population and Social Research. It is noteworthy that the number of people mentioned in family registration at the end of 2019 or the beginning of 2020 amounted to 66.5 million people, but since then the Thai population has gradually decreased, as the number of children born in one year has become less than the number of people who die, all in The same year and from tracking the numbers in 2021 and 2022, there were more deaths than people born in both years, which shows that the Thai population has actually declined.
From comparison with the 39-year period since 1984, the year that can be considered the end of the generation of million births, until 2022, births decreased from about 900 thousand people to about 500 thousand people, that is, a decrease of approximately 400 thousand parts. It rose from about 200,000 people to nearly 500,000 people as well, and both births and deaths changed during a period of 300,000 people that took the same period of time, i.e. 34-35 years, but the decline in the number of births during the 2017 decade is occurring more quickly. This is compared to the increase in deaths during the same period.
“Births have decreased by 200,000 while deaths have increased by 100,000 in just 5 years, showing that Thai population decline has already occurred. It has happened faster than previously expected. When the provincial administration department and the figures are announced Population on New Year's Eve every year, and we found that Thailand's population has declined since 2020, 9 years faster than expected.
At the end of the year, the number of births did not fall below 500,000, and deaths did not exceed 600,000.
When this is coupled with the trend of very rapid change in births and deaths during the 2017 decade, and by the end of 2023, the number of births is likely to be less than 500 thousand people, and the number of deaths is likely to exceed 600 thousand people. Such predictions may be correct, but it is good if the data stops at 2022, but at present the Registry Management Office is able to process and publish the data on a monthly basis, for example from January to October 2023 or 10 months of 2023, there were 433,050 births. Or an average of 43,305 deaths per month, or 472,546 deaths or an average of 47,255 deaths per month.
“It can be estimated that by the end of 2023, it is expected that there will be 519,660 births and 567,055 deaths, which is estimated by multiplying the average by 12. If so, the number of people born in 2023 will not decrease. To less than 5 hundred thousand, and the death toll has not exceeded 600 thousand people so far.”
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