Here’s the stat you already know: Since the trade deadline, when the Red Wings walked away from a potential playoff race and pulled away from Tyler Bertuzzi, Filip Hronek, Jakub Vrana and Oskar Sundqivst, the team has fallen off a cliff in the standings. Detroit is 3-8 since March 3, and 3-8-1 if you include their overtime loss to the Kraken on March 2, right on the heels of the Bertuzzi and Hronek deals.
Considering only this information, it is easy to draw some conclusions. The team put up good players. It took an emotional blow – both in the form of saying goodbye to dear team-mates and friends, and in understanding the implications for their hopes for the final. And all of that is true to an extent.
But here are some things you may not have realized; The stat that shocked me when it was shared with me by independent analyst Prashanth Iyer on Saturday night: Since March 3, the Red Wings’ share of projected goals (50.86 per cent, according to Hockey evolution) is actually very much better of their season average (46.64 percent). Their power play success rates, at 21.9 percent, and penalty kick, at a staggering 85.7 percent, are better than their full-season marks, too.
A team that creates more than it gives up, and largely cares about the business on special teams (despite a couple of short goals), is tough to come by with a 3-8 record. During this period, each of these three numbers ranks in the first half of the league. Instead, the result was a desperate drop in the rankings.
How could it be?
As you’ve probably guessed, the basis for the answer is that the share of actual five-to-five goals is much worse than the predicted goal data would suggest. At 26.23 percent, it’s the league’s worst since the trade deadline, and it can be broken down into two components: a 4.13 shooting percentage at five-on-five (the league’s worst in that period), and 881 saves. The percentage that ranks the bottom fifth.
Yes, this likely indicates some positive regression due to the red wings. And yes, it’s a small sample. But the big takeaway here is not that the Red Wings were simply unlucky during the month of March.
While a long run to the season with five-on-five and special teams numbers like that would likely yield better results, the fact that results were so poor though actually reveals something much more about what the team lacked. And, by extension, what you should be aiming for in this off-season.
It made me think of something coach Derek Lalonde said in the aftermath of the Red Wings’ 5-1 loss to the Avalanche a week ago: “The analytics minions will tell us we outplayed them. All the key numbers will say we played a good game. But we didn’t run out, and the difference-makers were among them.” difference makers.”
And you know what? He was right. The Red Wings hardly pulled off the best expected post-goal finish of the day, even in a lopsided loss. But that also doesn’t mean they deserve to win. They don’t — even if they probably deserve better than the final margin.
The difference, as usual, was what the Avalanche had and the Red Wings didn’t.
Now, the Red Wings simply can’t embody Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, or Mikko Rantanen into their lineup. At least, not without the lottery bounce — which, by the way, might at least make this late-season swoon possible.
But especially now that the team has replaced Vrana, once the team’s most dangerous flanker, and Bertuzzi, who has a career-high 14 percent shooting, the team is sorely lacking in fine finishing talent.
Dylan Larkin has a chance for another 30-goal season and may score 80 points for the first time in his career. Dominic Kubalek has scored 30 goals in the past, and he has a shot dangerous enough to do again. And Lucas Raymond, 20, is the most talented offensive player on the team, though his sophomore campaign showed he was still working through his professional transition. Detroit will finally get the help when Robbie Fabry and his skillful scoring touches are healthy again, too.
But the Red Wings need more. And the answers aren’t easy to find, especially in the free agent category.
Of the potentially big names available in free agency, the ones with a clear history of finishing are largely on the wrong side of 30 — Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko top that list. There’s a lower class that includes Alex Killorn, Jason Zucker and Michael Bunting, but the former two are also getting up there in age, the latter will need big money, a long-term deal to make up for their currently drastically lower salaries, and all three get out playing alongside some of hockey’s best players.
Maybe Killorn makes sense in something similar to the deal David Perron signed with Detroit last summer, bringing some goals and a heavier dimension, but even then: his career high in goals is still 26, and he’ll be 34. There is no silver bullet on the open market.
Another immediate avenue of fix would be via trade – think of the equivalent of trading Ottawa for Alex DeBrincat last summer – but it’s too early to tell what names might be in there.
Meanwhile, the other side of that ugly five-on-five gap between expectations and reality is in the network. We now know Phil Hosso has been suffering from an injury – one that has completely sidelined him for the last two games – which explains his recent drop in save percentage. But on the season, Detroit’s save percentage is less than . 900.
Throughout the year Hosso showed what he could do, but at times, it’s fair to say he was overworked. That means a backup goaltender is also a need for the Red Wings this summer, even if he’s just as great a story – and by all accounts, an presence – as Magnus Hellberg was.
The free goaltender crop isn’t as sparkling either, but since the Red Wings are looking for a No. 2, they may at least have more options. Alex Stalock and Semyon Varlamov, for example, would be 36 and 35, respectively, but for a backup on a short deal that’s fine. Both have had solid numbers as backups this year. Vegas’s Adin Hill did, too, though at 26 he might be more likely to find a long-term offer.
However, the ultimate need is still one that stands out above the rest. It’s something the Red Wings can tackle long-term through the draft, especially with two first-round picks this year. And over time, Raymond (in part by shooting more) has a good chance of rising to the kind of game-breaking scorer that Detroit lacks.
But when it comes to 2023-24, the way things have played out since the trade deadline seems to point to a clear mandate for the Red Wings this summer. Finding a way (and some guys) to finish with more chances may be the biggest difference between running in the playoffs and another season like this one.
(Top photo by Dylan Larkin and Dominic Kubalek: Brian Bradshaw Seewald/USA Today)
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