“This decree begins still further to the right”: a first assessment of the new French political landscape

French representatives play extensions. On Monday, they resumed consideration of a revised draft budget, the second part of a “package” of measures to buy power. On the menu, among others: a discount on fuel prices and the nationalization of EDF. Objective: To complete this first reading as quickly as possible, which should be resolved on Friday, to pass the baton to the Senate and quickly end this first extraordinary session. The debates will actually last longer than expected in view of the new sanctions weighing on the Macronists.

Because on June 19, the French legislative elections gave Emmanuel Macron a parliamentary headache: he did not get the absolute majority set at 289 out of 577 seats. He faced the Left (Noobs) coalition with 131 MLAs. (RN) with 89 seats and the traditional right (LR) with 61 elected members, the relative majority (ensemble!) of the presidential alliance is not guaranteed to pass its laws with its 245 representatives.

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During the first evaluation, political scientist Olivier Costa, director of research at Cevipof de Sciences Po, notes that the government did not succeed in securing a stable majority with the LR or the socialist opposition. “So he had to choose to go without a majority. You don’t need 289 members to rule the country, you don’t need 289 people plotting against you. If the opposition is divided and there are people who don’t vote, you can form a government with 245 members.

First text, first disappointment: Faced with a surge in Covid cases, the government has had to extend some measures, such as setting up health passes at borders. Nupes, RN and some LRs have joined forces to amend this section of the “Health Care Bill” on first reading. However, the Senate was able to reintroduce it to a greater extent.

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Negotiations outside the Hemicycle

The following text, the first of a series of measures to support purchasing power in the face of inflation, adopted on Friday, contained a more pleasing provision for Macroni. The presidential camp effectively succeeded in convincing the National Rally and Les Républicains to vote with him on these measures. According to Oliver Costa, “In search of credibility, the representatives of the RN are very cautious and do not prevent governing, which is a good surprise at the beginning of this mandate for the Prime Minister.” After all, “Republicans negotiate on a case-by-case basis, trading their support against a limited number of amendments resulting from their plan. In purchasing power, they get for example amortization of overtime and repurchase of RTT. We are in the legacy of Sarkozy with the slogan “Work more to earn more”, which is gaining symbolic victories that make this mandate start from the right due to the formal opposition of nubs.

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On the other hand, the New People’s Environmental and Social Union opposed all the articles issued by the government, their orientation being anti-liberal and anti-environmental. “Rebellious representatives are guerillas as expected, analyzes Oliver Costa. Twenty years have passed since this behavior was theorized by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. By contradicting everything to try to create a revolutionary moment, they do not think of winning power through the ballot box, but in the streets. It is complicated for those who are not in this line. PS and ecologists The left is trying to use the trust created by the Nupes to regain a form of credibility, but we are torn by the desire to appear reasonable in order to be able to hand over power. They leave the role of systematic persecutor of the government to the rebels, because it is paid based on credibility. Even among the Insoumis there are those like Clementine Autain who call for peace. Some texts to influence U. of formal ban going nowhere for some representatives who want to Thi is unsatisfactory.

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Because today “the real negotiations take place outside the semi-cycle, the government writes the law, but, in the entourage of ministers, discussions are held with the parties’ ambassadors,” explains Oliver Costa. “Furthermore, the government is very carefully considering radical opposition amendments, sometimes some from the left, but more formally with the LR.”

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Such is the coming years in a heated French political landscape. According to Oliver Costa, “Emmanuel Macron was smart to start with purchasing power, because no one can deny its intentions. It will be more complicated with real reforms like pensions. The government is really trying to find a method in easy texts before getting down to the hard stuff at the beginning of the school year, the researcher explains to us: ” One is that they can find a routine by negotiating on a case-by-case basis. With right, or without great reformation, they must rule in sight. All educational policies can be governed by decrees, both in the reserved domain of the President and in the regulatory domain of the government, such as International. All this awaits a favorable moment for possible dissolution and fresh elections. In two years, public opinion may have turned against the rebels, believing that the embargo was not good for the country.

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