Movement conditions in the foreign exchange market for Wednesday, December 13, 2023. The baht opened the market this morning (12/13) at the level of 35.71/72 baht/USD. It is down from Tuesday (12/12) market closing level of 35.65/66 baht/USD.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of consumer spending that resembles market expectations. The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) rose in December to 0.3%, in line with analyst expectations and up from 0.2% in November. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.1%, above analysts’ expectations and rose. From 0.0% in November and on an annual basis. The dollar index fell to 3.1%, equal to analysts’ expectations, and fell from the previous level of 3.2%.
The dollar index, which measures the dollar’s movement against six major currencies, fell 0.22% to 103.8637 as investors monitor today’s monetary policy meeting (FOMC).
Investors put nearly 100% of their weight into predicting that the Fed will announce maintaining interest rates at 5.25-5.50%, including monitoring the Fed’s interest rate policy outlook (point chart) and Mr. Jerome Powell’s statement. From the Federal Reserve to find signs indicating the direction of the Federal Reserve’s interest rates in 2024.
As for domestic factors, Ms. Prani Sutasri, Senior Director, Macroeconomics Department, Bank of Thailand (BoT) said at the Monetary Policy Forum that the Thai economy overall is on track for recovery. Maybe the momentum just hasn’t fully returned yet.
It can be seen that private consumption this year received an important impetus from spending on services. Meanwhile, the number of foreign tourists continues to recover. But it has not returned to its pre-Covid level. This contrasts with the increase in the number of Thai tourists who have returned to pre-Covid-19 levels, but the production and export sectors have not yet fully recovered. Meanwhile, the Thai economy is expected to expand more evenly in 2024 and 2025.
In 2024, merchandise exports will return to positive growth. Boosting the tourism sector will help drive the Thai economy, and in 2024, the Tourism Bank estimates that exports are expected to expand by 4.3% and 3.3% in 2025. However, Thai exports are still at risk due to not receiving the same amount of benefits. Expected. Of the structural problems in Thailand
It is expected that the number of foreign tourists in 2024 will reach 34.5 million, while in 2025 it will reach 39 million, and the number of foreign tourists will continue to increase. Although the recovery of Chinese tourists may be slower than expected, the number of foreign tourists is expected to return to a normal trend in 2025 after the recovery of non-Chinese tourists. During the day, the baht moved in a range of 35.67-35.81 baht/USD.
Euro Movement The market opened this morning (12/13) at 1.0792/94 USD/EUR. Double from Tuesday (12/12) market closing level of 1.0803/08 USD/EUR. The ZEW Institute’s economic confidence index for the eurozone rose to 23, higher than analysts expected and improving from November’s level of 13.8.
The German ZEW Economic Confidence Index for the Eurozone rose to 12.8, higher than analysts expected and up from November’s level of 9.8. During the day, the euro moved in the range between 1.0779-1.0797 USD/EUR and the market closed at 1.0788/92 USD/EUR.
As for the yen’s movement, the market opened this morning (12/13) at the level of 145.47/48 yen/USD. The price fell below Tuesday’s (12/12) market closing level of 145.36/38 yen/USD, with the Tankan announcing a major indicator for the manufacturing sector. (manufacturing index)
It classifies the level of general working conditions in the manufacturing sector. It rose to 12 levels, which is higher than analysts expected. As of October, the index outside the large manufacturing sector (manufacturing index) rose to 30, higher than analysts expected and rose from 27 in October, and the index level is above zero, indicating that the economic situation is improving well.
Investors are also watching the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy meeting next week, on December 18-19, and the yen is volatile amid speculation that the central bank is nearing its end. During the day, the value of the yen moved within the range between 145.25-145.88 Yen/USD and the market closed at 145.71/73 Yen/USD.
Important economic data this week includes meetings of the Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) (12-13/12), the Bank of England (14/12), the European Central Bank (14/12), and the global balance sheet index. November Sales (12/14), US Weekly Jobless Claims Number (12/14), November China Industrial Production Index (12/15), Eurozone PMI and US Manufacturing and Services Sectors (12/15)
For the morning hedging rate (swap point), one month in the country is -10.2/-10 SAT/USD. The 1-month morning hedging rate offshore is -7.4/-6.25 SAT/USD.
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