Before going into details about Thailand’s role on the world stage. The author asks for permission to tell the truth.Thai economyCompared to Asia and ASEAN in three ways:
(1) When compared to Asia Thai economic growth (GDP growth) Our condition is very low. China has averaged 1.9% growth over the past 10 years, the same level as Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea. But the average per capita income in these three countries is about five to seven times higher than in Thailand. Or, quite simply, Thailand is a “poor” country but is not growing as fast as its neighbors such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, India and China.
(2) Thai hasLevel of foreign direct investment (FDI) The average contraction has been -6.0% over the past 10 years, the second lowest after Myanmar. On the other hand, Singapore, the Philippines, Cambodia, and Vietnam recorded annual growth rates in foreign direct investment ranging between 6% and 7%, while Malaysia and Indonesia recorded annual growth rates in foreign direct investment ranging between 6% and 7%. Direct investment slowed at a rate of 1-3% annually.
(3) Thai people are middle-aged people. The average age is about 39.7 years. This is on the same level as China, Japan and Singapore, but older than its neighbors Vietnam, the Philippines, India and Indonesia. Considering the various demographic indicators, it will be at the same level as all developed countries, and these pictures indicate that The number of workers and purchasing power in Thailand will decrease in the coming period. While the neighbors will grow more
These three facts indicate that we have been marginalized as a major economy in the region. In the midst of global and Thai trends that are changing in 4 major directions
1. Perpetual flow Or that the economy, society, politics and government including the environment around the world incalamityConsistently looking back over the past five years, the global economy and society have faced the largest public health crisis in 100 years and the post-lockdown economic crisis. (A new global economic crisis may arise next year.)
The highest inflation rate in more than 4 decades, and the rise in basic commodity prices. Interest rates rose to record levels. Bankruptcy of important financial institutions in developed countries. Two large-scale wars broke out within two years, and conflicts and protests erupted in many countries of the world.
Most importantly, it includes: Environmental crisisThis is a result of global warming, which leads to extreme weather conditions such as heat waves, heavy rains, heavy floods, droughts, and forest fires.
2. China’s de-risking trend Or the trend of the Cold War between Western countries and China, which is part of the trend of declining globalization or reducing the level of globalization, and this issue of removing Chinese risks has led Western countries to reduce their role and relationship with China. Whether it is in trade, direct investment, whether it is creating a tax wall, and the fact that large companies are reducing their investments or withdrawing their investments in China.
3. Trade and investment flowsIn the Asian region, especially the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), trade has increased. There has been a change in the economic model “Asia Factory Model” that has made Asia enjoy greater income. They turned to intra-Asian trade more, which was a result of the trend of urbanization in ASEAN, which increased and the income of the middle class rose.
In terms of investments in Asia after China’s trend to eliminate risks, which caused the flow of investment out of China. As a result, these manufacturers will move their base to countries in Asia that The Economist calls “alternative Asia,” or Altasia for short.
This trend does not only happen with Western manufacturers. Manufacturers in Asia, including Japan, Singapore and manufacturers in China. They have increasingly turned to relocating their investment base in Asia.
4. Trends of the industrial revolution By integrating digital technologies such as the Internet of Things, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and robotics. And other advanced technology will give hope of improving productivity and livelihood.
In turn, it is also a source of income for the producing country. This trend is the industrial revolution which has pushed Asian countries to catch up with this trend and establish ourselves as champions in those future industries.
By inSingapore Trying to take over the financial and technology industriesVietnam Electronic Products Production Highlights It is an important production base of Samsung inMalaysia Focuses on IT and digital industries, whileIndonesia Mainly focus on the electric vehicle industry in the future.
Thailand has a picture of the changing world trends and in the midst of the Thai economy disappearing from the eyes of global businessmen and investors, it is a serious challenge to the current Thai government. This will attract the attention of the global business sector to Thailand again
However, the initial strategy envisioned by the Prime Minister and the government, such as investment and opening new markets, remains to be seen. That is trying to attract more big companies to invest in Thailand sending a signal that Thailand Open to work It has many strengths (including good international schools and healthcare system) and tries to focus on both aspects.
Without choosing any path, such as emphasizing the need to invest in China and the United States. Avoid this issue Political geography Emphasizing cross-cutting issues such as the Sustainable Development Goal, carbon neutrality, and green bonds, including a focus on the development of electric vehicles and combustion engine vehicles. Emphasizing the establishment of new infrastructure and developing agricultural and irrigation systems is a good effort.
But the author is also concerned about several important risk factors, such as short-term projects in particular Digital wallet This is very difficult in practice. Especially the issue of funding sources. While the projects are long-term there will be issues of importance and budget as well, for example between irrigation and transportation systems. Choose between a combustion engine vehicle or an electric vehicle
Last pointOpposition from various groups In multi-stakeholder policies, such as free trade agreement liberalization, there are populist projects that conflict with the ideas of academics, including various social conflict issues.
With a mission that was more difficult than pushing a mortar shell up a mountain like this. Efforts to make Thailand stand out on the world stage still have a long way to go.
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