Next week for stocks: The market is reading the Fed wrong

“We’ve loaded these very large rate increases, and now we’re getting close to where we need to be,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters.

Of course, another “extraordinarily large” increase could be put on the table, Powell said. But Wall Street looked past.

What came next: Investors cheered Powell’s clear pivot. The S&P 500 rose, posting its best month since November 2020, and financial conditions eased. Mortgage rates fell below 5% for the first time since mid-April.

Now, Fed officials are trying to get things right. Not wanting the markets to change course so sharply, and reversing the effects of their hard work thus far, they spoke forcefully once again.

“[We’re] Nowhere near that,” said Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco an interview on LinkedIn last week.
Loretta Meester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, told Washington Post It “would be inappropriate…to cry about victory too soon” and to risk letting high inflation take hold.

“We need to see really convincing evidence that inflation is trending downward, and my view is that we haven’t seen that yet,” Meester said.

As the Fed tries to cut demand again until it stops rising against limited supply – driving up prices – it is keeping a close eye on the labor market, which has remained strong.

during job opportunities Down in June, the US economy continues to add jobs at a healthy pace. July blast report Released on Friday It showed a gain of 528,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%.

The news poured cold water on the theory that the Fed will dramatically change its approach anytime soon. The central bank actually wants to see some weakness in the labor market. When there are a lot of open roles, wages rise quickly, which can make economy-wide inflation worse.

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“This is not the news the Fed wanted to hear, and it will probably cause interest rates to be pushed higher and faster,” said Robert Frick, company economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.

Investors are back: The stock market on Friday expected a 66% chance of a rate hike by three-quarters of a point in September, according to FedWatch CME أداة. On Thursday, the market priced at only a 34% chance of making that rally higher.

coming: The next big data release is the Consumer Price Index, which is used to track inflation in the United States. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv expect to know that prices rose 8.7% in the year through July, down slightly from June. But barring volatile food and energy prices, inflation may have picked up gradually.

The strong dollar in America is hurting others

The US dollar was in Tear this year. this good news For American tourists cruising around Europe, but it’s bad news for almost every other country in the world.

The most recent: The dollar has appreciated more than 10% in 2022 compared to other major currencies – near a two-decade high – as investors worried about a global recession scrambled to cash in on dollars, considered a safe haven in turbulent times. .

Adding to the attractiveness of the dollar is the Federal Reserve fierce campaign Raising interest rates to tackle decades of high inflation. This made US investments more attractive, as they now offer higher returns.

Travelers in the US may rejoice that a night in Rome that used to cost $100 now costs about $80, but it’s a more complex picture for multinationals and foreign governments.

look here: About half of the international trade billed in dollars, running bills for manufacturers and small businesses that depend on imported goods. Governments that need to pay their dollar debts may also face problems, especially if reserves are running low.

Dollar gains are already hurting some weak economies.

The shortage of dollars in Sri Lanka contributed to worst economic crisis In the country’s history, forcing the country’s president in the end outside the office Last month. The Pakistani rupee fell to a record low against the dollar in late July, pushing it to On the verge of default. And Egypt – which has been hit by rising food prices – is dealing with a depleted stock of dollars and a mass exodus of foreign investment. All three countries had to turn to the International Monetary Fund for help.

“It was a challenging environment,” William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics told me.

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next one

Monday: Earnings from BioNTech, Palantir, Tyson Foods, Novavax, and News Corp. and Take-Two Interactive and SmileDirectClub

Tuesday: Earnings from Dine Brands, Hyatt, Spirit Airlines, Coinbase, Roblox, and Wynn Resorts

Wednesday: US Consumer Price Index for July; Earnings from Disney, Fox Corporation, Wendy’s and Bumble

Thursday: OPEC monthly report. US Producer Price Index for July; Earnings from the brands Utz, Warby Parker and Wheels Up

Friday: the gross domestic product of the United Kingdom; University of Michigan Consumer Survey

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