Highlighting blue-chip stocks, Q4 earnings theme grows, targets heavily shorted ESG – NVDR funds

HoonSmart.com>>9 months of 2023, listed companies achieved a total profit of 740,814 million baht, a decrease of 10.6%, Mai Co., Ltd. Total profit of 5,479 million baht, down 35%. The securities fueled the stock’s impressive earnings in the fourth quarter. CBG, ERW, DOHOME, MAJOR, and GPSG are expected to rise year-on-year and KCE, SCGP continues to grow from Q3. For stocks that have passed their lowest point, you should have in the portfolio: IVL, PTTGC, CPALL and CPAXT. ESG stocks are also interesting, and strong buying from funds is expected in the month. 1 – 15 billion baht. Asia Plus Securities sees good stocks at cheap prices. CPALL, CRC, TU, SCC, SCGP, SIRI, BEM and TISCO were shorted by NVDR.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand revealed that during the nine months of 2023, 815 companies listed (Limited) on the Stock Exchange (SET), representing 97.26%, achieved profits from core operations (core profit) of 1,249,191 million baht and net profit reached 740,814 million baht, a decrease of 16.0% and 10.6%, respectively, compared to the same period last year. As a result of sales of 12,729,782 million baht, a decrease of 3.4%, production costs decreased by 2.9%, while selling and administrative expenses increased by 5.8% due to the impact of oil prices and the slowdown in the global economy. Which has a negative impact on the energy, petrochemical and chemical business, including companies that export, if these companies are not listed. It has stable operating results

While there are positive factors from the banking category which is growing with rising interest rates the insurance business is recovering from the coronavirus situation. Tourism business since the opening of the country and technology companies that have high requirements in the digital age

Companies in the Alternative Investment Market (MAI) achieved operating profit of 9,282 million baht and net profit of 5,479 million baht, a decrease of 12.9% and 35.0%, respectively, and total sales reached 145,338 million baht, an increase of 1.2%. Production costs amounted to 107,737 million baht, a decrease of 0.3%, and selling and administrative expenses amounted to 28,319 million baht, an increase of 13.4%.

Krungsri Patanasin Securities provides strategic advice. Invest in stocks with earnings in the fourth quarter of 2023 that have continued to grow compared to the same period last year (year-over-year) and the previous quarter (quarter-over-quarter), including CBG, ERW, DOHOME, and MAJOR, which combine stocks that have… Lowest levels. Point, namely IVL, PTTGC and CPALL. CPAXT groups whose profits continue to grow on an annual basis such as GPSC) and groups whose profits tend to grow on a quarterly basis such as KCE and SCGP generally still expect market profits in 2023-2024 at 86 and 99.5 baht and target the Broken Asset Market Index at 2020. This year and next year 1550 points and 1750 points based on ERP of 2.7% and 3%.

“Q4 profit trends are expected to be very stable on a quarterly basis, given the groups where profits will grow strongly. Such as petrochemical groups (China is recovering, costs are lower), tourism and transportation groups support from the peak season (tourists from November 1 to 16 The recovery of tourists is clearly accelerating, reaching 81.8% in the pre-Covid period. Compared to the second half of 2022 by approximately 39.5% of the pre-Covid-19 period, retail and real estate groups (supported by the peak season, lower prices On the other hand, the group that expects a weak performance will not be so high. For example, the banking group is supported by an increase in net interest margin after the increase The latest interest rate for the entire quarter, plus loans.
Expansion in line with the overall economy, offsetting expenses that are accelerating every year, and hospital groups with the support of patients from abroad, reducing the base effect of the high season high in the past third quarter.

As for Q3 2023, the company is expected to achieve total profits of 275 billion baht + 19.9% ​​YoY + 31.3% QoQ, with the profit increase mainly driven by the petrochemicals group (PTTGC returned its dividend and was higher More than expected from claims insurance), Energy group (TOP, BCP, SPRC supported by refining business +85% y/y, +176% q/q from refining margins), ICT group (ADVANC balance sheet better than expected due to… Lower costs), with all three groups calculating profit ratios, a high total of 46% of total profits. The group whose profits slowed were the agricultural groups (CPF, GFPT from lower animal prices), construction materials (SCC from the need to slow down), and the retail group. (CPAXT is under pressure from worsening GPM, BJC, GLOBAL, CRC are under pressure from SG&A/sales) etc.

In addition, Krungsri Patanasin Securities continues to recommend stocks that benefit from TESG’s fund offering in December 2023. Which has a policy of investing in ESG stocks, amounting to 210 out of 600 companies in the market, expects the stocks to become in a group The SET ESG indicator is more interesting. There is a possibility that the country’s active fund will undo its position first, focusing on the combination 1) the price has fallen more strongly than the THAIESG index -14% since the beginning of the year and 2) it has been shorted on the main board + NVDR from the high point on 30 August 2023 – To date, there is a % short sales volume (+NVDR) of over 8% of individual trading value. This should be the goal of the Fund, focusing on CPALL, GULF, CRC, GPSC, PTTGC, IVL, SCGP, OR, CBG, HMPRO.

For the TESG Fund, the policy of investing in stocks is a policy. ESG and long-term debt instruments are additional funds on top of the existing RMF and RMF. The maximum investment is no more than 100,000 baht. The investment period is 8 full years if based on the current tax payment structure. And the data for LTF purchases over 2017-2019, along with the SET picture, is currently in the investment zone, the P/B ratio is around 1.3 times, close to the average – 2 SD, and the support picture for the interest rate uptrend cycle has ended. . He believes there is a chance to see newly established funds entering the market during December 23, accelerating entry into the market. It is in the upper range of 10-15 billion baht

Asia Plus Securities Looking at stocks held by high NVDR, there are negative factors affecting them. There is a high opportunity to borrow from SHORT SELL, resulting in this stock can fluctuate more than usual. The research department screened the stocks with the highest holding value through NVDR as of October 31, 2023, with a total of 15 stocks. However, the overall stock market still has an interesting valuation, including a PER in 2024 of 14.1 times He still expects profits next year. Growth is expected to be around 12.6%, so a strategy of gradually accumulating inventories to achieve medium to long-term results should be appropriate for this market condition. We recommend stocks CPALL, CRC, TU, SCC, SCGP, SIRI, BEM, TISCO, etc.